Five Senators To Watch On Health Care

With 60 Democrats in the Senate, the party has enough votes to pass any bill it pleases -- but that total includes two independents that caucus with the party and leaves no room for error. The tight margin is on display once again as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) searches for enough support to both bring health care reform up for a vote and actually pass it.

While many Republicans do not support passing comprehensive reform at all, Reid is struggling to win over the centrist members of his own party on a couple sticking points: a government-run insurance option and banning federal funding for abortions.

Following House passage of its reform legislation Saturday night, President Obama expressed confidence that the Senate would follow suit. The president has done his part, meeting personally with a number of centrist Democrats to discuss reform. How successful he and Reid can be remains to be seen, but there is consensus on the fact that it will be far more difficult than passing it out of the House.

As the Senate awaits cost estimates from the Congressional Budget Office this week, all eyes remain on a select group of senators whose support or opposition could alter the ultimate success of the bill. Here are Five Senators To Watch as Senate Democratic leadership looks to pass its own health care reform by the end of the month:

Ben Nelson (D-Nebraska)

As the Almanac of American Politics puts it, "He often is found in the middle of battles between the extremes of both parties." That was true in 2005, when he was part of the Gang of 14 that sought to allow President Bush's judicial nominations to move forward, and it remains true today, as Nelson continues to be at the heart of each battle over health care.

Nelson is against the public option, even with an opt-out clause, which had been the center of debate until this week. Now, since House Democrats passed a bill Saturday that bars federal dollars from being spent on abortions, Nelson says he will not support a bill that doesn't do the same thing. "If it doesn't make it clear that it does not pay for abortion then I wouldn't support it," Nelson told reporters Monday, according to Reuters.

The second term senator could introduce his own amendment that would solve the issue. House Democratic leaders were forced to include the Stupak amendment to get enough Dem votes for passage, and Senate Democratic leadership will likely be in the same boat.

Olympia Snowe (R-Maine)

As a moderate Republican who has joined Democrats in previous key votes, Snowe is often mentioned in the health care debate. Her vote in the Senate Finance Committee helped move health care reform to the cusp of the Senate floor. However, she made sure to note at the time that she will not necessarily support the final bill that is introduced to the full Senate.

Snowe's voting record pits her in the middle of the Senate, and Democrats are hoping to win her support on this crucial vote. But Snowe has said she does not support a public option, even with an opt-out clause. So winning her vote does not appear likely -- as Reid announced the bill will indeed include it -- unless Democrats decide to give the public option a "trigger," which Snowe supports.

Joe Lieberman (I-Connecticut)

If you take Lieberman at his word -- and there's no reason not to -- Democrats should all but count out his support. The independent, who caucuses with the Democrats, has said he'd rather see no health care reform passed than reform that includes a public option. "The public option plan is unnecessary," Lieberman said on Fox News Sunday. "It has been put forward -- I'm convinced -- by people who really want the government to take over all of health insurance."

While he's in favor of insuring as many of the uninsured as possible and stopping the continuing unsustainable costs of health care, Lieberman opposes the public option because of the effect he feels it will have on the national debt. If the bill Reid brings to the floor includes the option, Lieberman maintains he will join a Republican filibuster to not allow it to come up for a vote.

Blanche Lincoln (D-Arkansas)

Lincoln is considered one of the most vulnerable senators up for re-election in 2010, and she's feeling the heat as every vote she casts is carefully scrutinized. Republicans are lining up to take on the second-term senator, even though she won both her elections with at least 55 percent of the vote.

Lincoln supported the Baucus bill that came out of the Senate Finance Committee, but she has stated her displeasure with a government-run public option, saying she'd prefer a nonprofit organization to run it. Unlike Lieberman, Lincoln has indicated she may join Democrats to allow a floor vote on the bill before eventually voting against its passage, though this possibility has already earned her flak from the Republican National Committee.

Mary Landrieu (D-Louisiana)

Just re-elected last year, Landrieu does not have the same issues as Lincoln. She has repeatedly said she does not support a government-run insurance company, however the third-term senator has left plenty of room for compromise -- and both Reid and Obama have met privately with her to discuss their differences. Landrieu said she was "skeptical" of Reid's plan to include an opt-out clause for states.

Landrieu has indicated support for the public option "trigger," which is also backed by Snowe. This would allow the option to kick in after a few years if insurance rates don't decline and state markets continue to be monopolized by a few large companies.